Montgomery, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

273
FXUS64 KHUN 211403
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
803 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 803 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure to our west is bringing in much drier air this
morning with dew points down in the low 20s. Surface pressure
gradient of about 5 mb across the state of Alabama will produce
elevated winds this afternoon. The current forecast calls for
gusts up to 25-30 mph, not quite wind advisory criteria. The main
concern today will be how much mixing of dry air aloft makes it
to the surface, with the anticipated impact of elevated fire
danger. Single digit dew points loom aloft per 12Z soundings this
morning, but we do not expect this much mixing. Dew points were
lowered in this morning update, but persistent cold air advection
will keep temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s today, keeping
minimum RH values between 30-35%.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to meander SE
from the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic tonight into Friday. A weak shortwave will bring another
shot of cool air to the region -- and potentially keep our winds
breezy overnight and into the day on Friday. This gusty NW flow
will help to keep the atmosphere mixed enough overnight to prevent
low temperatures from falling below the freezing mark tonight
(save for a very few localized spots in southern middle
Tennessee). Additionally these winds and the dry air mass should
significantly limit the formation of frost. The reinforcing shot
of cooler air on Friday will also knock highs back a couple more
degrees -- with temperatures peaking in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

Our best chance for a light freeze (the first one of the autumn
season) will be Friday night into early Saturday morning. Winds
will begin to weaken with the low pressure system shifting to the
east. Lows in the lower 30s will be more common across the region
by early Saturday morning. High pressure will then begin to build
in gradually from the west this weekend and we`ll slowly begin to
modify the air mass. With ample sunshine, highs will return to the
upper 50s on Saturday and the mid 60s by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

A more active pattern will begin to evolve during the early to
middle part of next week. A fast-moving mid to upper trough will
shift across the Ohio Valley, dragging a cold front through the
Mid South and Tennessee Valley Monday evening/night -- bringing
medium to high chances (60-80%) of rain showers and a few
thunderstorms. Something to keep an eye on Tuesday Night into
Wednesday will be another area of low pressure developing across
the Mid-Mississippi Valley, which may eventually bring additional
rain chances to the region during the peak travel period for the
Thanksgiving holiday. Still a bit of spread with the timing and
evolution of this potential system, but we may be positioned for
some beneficial rainfall during this window.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a clear sky.
However, winds will increase out of the WNW this morning before
veering to the NW this afternoon -- gusting to between 20-25 kts.
Winds will weaken slightly later this evening, but will still be
gusty out of the NW up to 15 kts through the remainder of the
night.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....AMP
AVIATION...AMP